Matchups
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<< 10/04 October 5, 2025 10/06 >>

Last Updated: 12:07 PM

The Matchup Model gives a probability distribution of outcomes for every batter/pitcher combination. The numbers below DO account for today's stadium and weather. You can find more details on the Methodology page.

How to read this data

B	P	Tm	Batter	vs	Pitcher	RC	HR	XB	1B	BB	K	HR	XB	1B	BB	K	PA	AB	H	HR	XB	1B	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	PA	AB	H	HR	XB	1B	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	Batter	Pitcher	Starter	Power	Contact	All	GameDescription	OppositeHand
R	R	DET	Javier Baez	-2	Castillo	-5	5	2	-10	-18	-2	2.4	5.2	15.5	3.3	23.1	9	8	1	0	0	1	1	1	.125	.222	.125	9	8	2.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	1	1	.248	.332	.251	595879	622491	1	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	0
L	L	SEA	J.P. Crawford	-9	Skubal	-41	-27	-48	-28	-27	67	1.7	2.7	11.6	7.8	33.6	10	9	3	0	0	3	1	3	.333	.400	.333	10	9	1.3	0.0	0.0	1.2	1	3	.143	.228	.148	641487	669373	1	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	0
R	L	SEA	Victor Robles	-8	Skubal	-27	-12	-43	-10	-15	45	2.0	2.8	13.5	6.4	34.0	14	13	1	0	1	0	1	5	.077	.143	.154	14	13	1.5	0.2	0.8	0.5	1	5	.116	.179	.229	645302	669373	1	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	1
L	L	SEA	Josh Naylor	-6	Skubal	-34	-19	-38	-23	-25	76	2.7	3.3	14.2	4.6	29.5	15	15	3	0	2	1	0	1	.200	.200	.333	15	15	2.6	0.0	0.4	2.2	0	1	.171	.171	.200	647304	669373	1	0	1	1	Tigers @ Mariners	0
R	R	DET	Gleyber Torres	1	Castillo	-16	-4	-25	-12	-13	16	2.5	3.7	12.6	11.3	24.1	12	9	2	0	0	2	3	3	.222	.417	.222	12	9	1.7	0.0	0.2	1.5	3	3	.189	.392	.209	650402	622491	1	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	0
L	R	DET	Zach McKinstry	2	Castillo	-7	0	-17	-5	-5	5	2.3	4.4	14.1	9.6	25.5	14	13	3	0	0	3	1	2	.231	.286	.231	14	13	3.6	0.0	0.5	3.1	1	2	.280	.332	.330	656716	622491	1	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	1
S	L	SEA	Leo Rivas	-9	Skubal	-34	-14	-36	-16	-29	55	2.1	2.7	10.1	8.9	43.9	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	4	4	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	0	3	.116	.116	.120	660844	669373	0	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	1
R	R	DET	Jahmai Jones	-3	Castillo	-14	-15	-23	-7	-9	10	2.6	3.5	11.9	10.2	29.4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	663330	622491	0	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	0
S	L	SEA	Cal Raleigh	-8	Skubal	-37	-24	-42	-19	-27	54	3.7	2.9	9.1	9.0	47.2	15	15	3	1	0	2	0	7	.200	.200	.400	15	15	4.2	0.5	1.0	2.7	0	7	.282	.282	.460	663728	669373	1	1	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	1
R	L	SEA	Randy Arozarena	-9	Skubal	-34	-13	-39	-15	-33	39	1.8	2.9	10.7	7.6	43.4	23	21	4	0	1	3	2	8	.190	.261	.238	23	21	4.0	0.0	1.0	3.0	2	8	.190	.260	.242	668227	669373	1	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	1
R	R	DET	Jake Rogers	-4	Castillo	-11	-1	-20	-3	-22	5	2.7	4.0	13.4	6.7	30.5	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	.200	.200	.200	5	5	1.1	0.0	0.1	1.0	0	1	.212	.212	.230	668670	622491	0	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	0
L	L	SEA	Luke Raley	-10	Skubal	-38	-31	-48	-16	-19	42	2.4	2.4	10.9	6.8	47.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	670042	669373	0	1	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	0
L	L	SEA	Miles Mastrobuoni	-9	Skubal	-38	-41	-37	-21	-24	75	.9	3.0	13.1	6.8	34.3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	670156	669373	0	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	0
S	R	DET	Wenceel Perez	-1	Castillo	-9	13	-26	-4	-17	4	3.0	4.0	14.4	6.5	27.1	6	6	4	0	0	4	0	0	.667	.667	.667	6	6	2.8	0.0	0.1	2.7	0	0	.468	.468	.491	672761	622491	0	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	1
R	L	SEA	Julio Rodriguez	-7	Skubal	-28	-16	-31	-16	-19	50	2.7	3.4	13.5	6.3	38.6	14	13	2	1	1	0	1	5	.154	.214	.462	14	13	3.2	1.0	0.8	1.3	1	5	.243	.297	.545	677594	669373	1	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	1
L	R	DET	Parker Meadows	-6	Castillo	-14	-5	-23	-3	-20	10	2.1	3.5	12.5	8.3	30.5	7	7	2	0	0	2	0	3	.286	.286	.286	7	7	1.9	0.0	0.0	1.9	0	3	.272	.272	.277	678009	622491	1	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	1
R	R	DET	Spencer Torkelson	-2	Castillo	-11	-13	-27	-2	-3	10	3.1	3.5	11.3	11.6	33.3	9	9	1	0	0	1	0	2	.111	.111	.111	9	9	1.2	0.0	0.1	1.0	0	2	.129	.129	.156	679529	622491	1	1	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	0
L	R	DET	Kerry Carpenter	6	Castillo	-2	15	-27	3	-9	-2	4.4	3.8	14.7	7.3	26.1	8	7	1	1	0	0	1	3	.143	.250	.571	8	7	1.9	0.7	0.4	0.8	1	3	.271	.362	.625	681481	622491	1	1	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	1
L	R	DET	Riley Greene	8	Castillo	-1	16	-17	-2	-12	0	5.4	4.8	12.7	8.1	29.7	11	11	4	0	2	2	0	1	.364	.364	.636	11	11	2.6	0.3	1.1	1.2	0	1	.232	.232	.408	682985	622491	1	1	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	1
L	L	SEA	Dominic Canzone	-10	Skubal	-50	-40	-52	-28	-21	79	1.8	2.7	10.8	5.3	45.8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	686527	669373	0	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	0
L	L	SEA	Rhylan Thomas	-10	Skubal	-38	-35	-32	-22	-10	47	1.3	2.5	9.8	5.3	49.8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	689041	669373	0	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	0
L	R	DET	Colt Keith	1	Castillo	-8	0	-18	-3	-15	0	2.4	4.5	14.5	7.4	24.6	11	8	0	0	0	0	3	5	.000	.273	.000	11	8	0.6	0.0	0.2	0.4	3	5	.071	.325	.094	690993	622491	1	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	1
R	R	DET	Dillon Dingler	-3	Castillo	-11	1	-23	-2	-19	8	3.0	4.1	13.9	6.8	28.8	7	7	1	0	1	0	0	1	.143	.143	.286	7	7	0.8	0.0	0.4	0.3	0	1	.111	.111	.183	693307	622491	1	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	0
L	R	DET	Trey Sweeney	-6	Castillo	-6	2	-20	-4	-11	4	2.9	3.8	11.7	6.2	34.4	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	1.333	3	3	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0	1	.326	.326	1.291	700242	622491	0	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	1
L	L	SEA	Cole Young	-9	Skubal	-38	-29	-41	-31	-14	62	2.0	2.8	9.8	8.6	36.4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	702284	669373	0	0	0	1	Tigers @ Mariners	0
R	R	NYY	Giancarlo Stanton	-3	Yesavage	0	8	-10	-16	4	29	4.9	4.2	9.7	12.3	42.4	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	2	2	0.8	0.0	0.7	0.1	0	1	.381	.381	.744	519317	702056	1	1	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	0
R	L	TOR	George Springer	3	Fried	-7	-35	-25	12	-1	8	2.7	4.3	15.9	10.9	23.8	19	17	5	1	2	2	2	0	.294	.368	.588	19	17	6.2	1.1	1.8	3.3	2	0	.364	.431	.669	543807	608331	1	1	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
R	R	NYY	Aaron Judge	7	Yesavage	-4	-4	-14	-19	7	34	5.1	4.2	10.5	17.2	33.0	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	.000	.500	.000	2	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	1	.000	.000	.000	592450	702056	1	1	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	0
S	L	TOR	Tyler Heineman	-2	Fried	10	-35	5	17	-1	-4	1.5	5.1	18.5	6.7	18.8	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	2	2	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.6	0	0	.332	.332	.351	623168	608331	0	0	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
S	L	TOR	Anthony Santander	-5	Fried	9	-35	-12	15	13	-5	1.6	3.7	13.2	12.3	27.5	9	7	2	1	0	1	2	3	.286	.444	.714	9	7	1.6	0.6	0.4	0.7	2	3	.232	.403	.540	623993	608331	0	0	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
L	R	NYY	Cody Bellinger	5	Yesavage	4	14	-7	-5	3	35	4.0	5.2	13.8	10.5	21.5	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	2	2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	641355	702056	1	1	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
L	R	NYY	J.C. Escarra	-2	Yesavage	0	3	-16	-10	32	57	2.6	3.9	14.4	12.0	30.6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	641555	702056	0	0	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
L	R	NYY	Ryan McMahon	-6	Yesavage	1	5	-12	-7	4	27	3.4	4.0	11.6	11.6	42.2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	2	2	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.1	0	0	.176	.176	.301	641857	702056	1	0	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
R	R	NYY	Amed Rosario	-4	Yesavage	-2	-2	-2	-9	19	41	2.2	5.0	17.6	4.9	29.9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	642708	702056	0	0	1	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	0
L	L	TOR	Daulton Varsho	-6	Fried	-7	-43	-19	14	0	-2	2.3	4.1	13.3	7.7	27.8	6	5	2	0	2	0	1	1	.400	.500	.800	6	5	1.6	0.0	1.1	0.5	1	1	.315	.429	.560	662139	608331	1	1	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	0
L	R	NYY	Trent Grisham	-3	Yesavage	-4	-5	-20	-14	9	32	3.2	3.7	9.8	16.6	36.1	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	2	2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	663757	702056	1	0	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
R	L	TOR	Myles Straw	1	Fried	8	3	-4	9	-12	5	2.1	5.2	18.6	6.6	19.9	12	10	2	0	1	1	2	1	.200	.333	.300	12	10	3.2	0.0	0.9	2.3	2	1	.324	.436	.436	664702	608331	1	0	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
L	L	TOR	Nathan Lukes	2	Fried	7	-22	-7	12	4	7	1.5	5.3	19.7	7.4	17.1	6	6	2	0	0	2	0	3	.333	.333	.333	6	6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	0	3	.082	.082	.083	664770	608331	0	0	1	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	0
R	L	TOR	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	8	Fried	0	-43	-16	11	11	4	1.7	5.2	19.5	12.4	16.3	18	18	6	0	2	4	0	3	.333	.333	.444	18	18	6.7	0.0	1.5	5.2	0	3	.372	.372	.465	665489	608331	1	0	1	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
L	R	NYY	Jazz Chisholm	-3	Yesavage	0	7	-8	-15	9	37	4.2	4.2	10.5	12.9	39.9	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	2	2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	.031	.031	.038	665862	702056	1	1	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
L	L	TOR	Andres Gimenez	-4	Fried	-3	-20	-8	-3	-11	6	1.6	4.9	16.9	5.9	22.4	7	6	2	1	0	1	1	1	.333	.429	.833	7	6	0.8	0.1	0.1	0.6	1	1	.136	.260	.204	665926	608331	1	0	1	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	0
L	R	NYY	Austin Wells	-4	Yesavage	4	11	-9	-14	16	26	3.9	4.7	10.6	10.6	37.2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	2	2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	1	.003	.003	.004	669224	702056	1	1	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
R	L	TOR	Alejandro Kirk	7	Fried	1	-25	-6	9	-7	1	2.6	5.3	19.1	8.6	15.9	17	15	2	0	0	2	2	1	.133	.235	.133	17	15	5.0	0.2	1.0	3.8	2	1	.331	.410	.445	672386	608331	1	0	1	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
R	L	TOR	Ernie Clement	6	Fried	11	-33	26	13	-8	8	1.8	7.9	19.3	4.5	13.4	17	17	7	1	2	4	0	1	.412	.412	.765	17	17	5.8	0.4	1.1	4.2	0	1	.340	.340	.490	676391	608331	1	0	1	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
R	R	NYY	Jose Caballero	-6	Yesavage	-3	4	-7	-17	11	40	2.8	4.2	11.0	12.2	38.7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	676609	702056	0	0	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	0
R	L	TOR	Davis Schneider	-4	Fried	-1	-33	2	6	-5	9	2.0	4.2	11.6	13.9	33.0	14	12	2	0	0	2	2	3	.167	.286	.167	14	12	2.7	0.5	0.5	1.7	2	3	.222	.333	.395	676914	608331	1	0	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
R	L	TOR	Leo Jimenez	-6	Fried	0	-44	-6	10	1	3	1.5	4.4	15.0	9.3	29.6	7	7	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	7	7	1.1	0.0	0.9	0.2	0	1	.160	.160	.299	677870	608331	0	0	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
L	L	TOR	Addison Barger	-5	Fried	-9	-38	-36	16	-16	8	1.7	3.2	17.5	8.4	25.9	3	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	.333	.333	.333	3	3	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	0	2	.153	.153	.154	680718	608331	0	0	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	0
S	L	TOR	Jonatan Clase	-4	Fried	13	-39	4	21	10	-8	1.6	4.7	16.3	9.0	26.2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	2	2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	.025	.025	.026	682729	608331	0	0	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
R	R	NYY	Anthony Volpe	-7	Yesavage	-2	2	-10	-18	17	30	3.2	4.0	10.8	10.8	39.7	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	2	2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	683011	702056	1	0	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	0
S	R	NYY	Jasson Dominguez	-7	Yesavage	-7	-3	-19	-16	23	40	2.2	3.9	12.4	10.3	37.9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	691176	702056	0	0	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1
L	L	TOR	Joey Loperfido	-7	Fried	1	-40	-2	11	-4	5	1.6	4.9	15.6	6.0	33.9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	694388	608331	0	0	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	0
L	R	NYY	Ben Rice	2	Yesavage	-1	8	-16	-15	13	44	4.2	4.3	11.3	13.4	30.7	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	2	2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	700250	702056	1	1	0	1	Yankees @ Blue Jays	1

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