This chart estimates how a hitter’s batted balls would have played in the selected park.

How estimates work

Ballpark Pal predicts the outcome of every batted ball from how it left the bat — exit velocity, launch angle, spray direction, batter and pitcher handedness, and pitch type. Outcomes change from park to park because dimensions, fence heights, altitude, and the local environment are baked in, so each dot is the probability of that ball’s outcome at the venue you’ve selected.

Color coding

Dots are colored by the probability of the selected outcome at the selected stadium — dark red near 0%, yellow at 50%, dark green at 100%. The visibility slider hides batted balls whose average probability across all 30 parks falls outside the chosen range.

The headline number

+27.0 HRs means the player would be expected to produce 27 more homers at the chosen stadium than the average of all 30 parks across this set of batted balls. Use the toggle in the bottom-left of the field to switch between raw counts and percentage change.

How is weather handled

Weather is intentionally left out of this model when "use today's weather" is unchecked. In this scenario, each park’s typical environment is built into the estimates. Sacramento, for example, is usually hot with a wind blowing out toward left-center — conditions like that are reflected in the year-long blend of the park's weather.

Contact effects

Some parks change how often — and how cleanly — hitters make contact in the first place. That effect isn’t built into this chart, but a note appears under the stadium dropdown when it matters. Great American Ball Park is a good example: it turns balls in play into home runs at an elite rate, so the chart will often overstate its boost. The park has been shown to depress contact, meaning a hitter would likely put fewer quality balls in play in Cincinnati than what you see here.